Shahid Sarwar, Anwaar Ahmed Khan, Shandana Tarique.
Comparison of MELD, Child Pugh Score and Rockall Score for predicting rebleeding and in-hospital mortality in patients of variceal bleeding.
J Coll Physicians Surg Pak Jan ;18(8):524-5.

A study was planned at Shaikh Zayed, Postgraduate Medical Institute for evaluation of Rockall score in predicting in-hospital rebleeding and mortality of variceal bleeding and published earlier. We re-explored the same data for comparison of CTP, MELD and Rockall score in determining survival in variceal bleeding patients. Methods and materials for data collection were same as given in original study. CTP, MELD and Rockall scores were calculated for each patient. Receiver-operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the concordance c-statistics (equivalent to the area under the ROC curve) of each score for mortality and rebleeding. A model was considered to have diagnostic accuracy if the c-statistics were > 0.7 and excellent diagnostic accuracy if c-statistics were > 0.8. C-statistics of models were compared using chi-square test with p-value < 0.05 being significant. C-statistics was 0.688 for MELD score, 0.824 for Rockall score and 0.801 for CTP score, for mortality. Chi-square test revealed that Rockall score and CTP score have better predictability for mortality in variceal bleeding. AUC for predicting rebleeding was 0.419 for MELD score, 0.52 for CTP score and 0.803 for Rockall score.

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