Samina Mohsin Khan.
Association of climate change with magnitude and trends of malaria in Balochistan.
Pak J Public Health Jan ;3(1):4-8.

Introduction: Climate change is a new emerging threat of global proportions. During the 20th century, world average surface temperature increased by approximately 0.6°C. Climate change affects multiple sectors including agriculture, forestry, water resources, air quality, ecosystems, biodiversity, etc. In terms of its effects on health, it is the possible increase in vector-borne diseases spatially and temporally. Objectives: The objectives of the study paper were to determine the different trends of malaria in Balochistan with respect to Geographical distribution; Seasonal frequency; and Magnitude; and to correlate it with temperature change in Balochistan, irrespective of age, gender and socio-economic status. The research used the data during the last nine years preceding the research i.e. from 2001 to 2009. Methods: This was a registry based cross sectional study and used the based on secondary data. Four districts from Balochistan were randomly selected, based on level of malaria endemicity and availability of the records by the Metrological Department. Data was analyzed using computer statistical software SPSS 16 whereby appropriate statistical tests were applied, including the linear logistic regression models. Results: The mean monthly temperature in high and low endemic districts was 20.8+/-7.8 and 20.6+/-9.1 degrees Celsius, respectively. During the peak summer months of June, July and August, the mean temperature was found to be low in the high endemic districts as compared to the low endemic districts. A linear regression model was applied on the effects of monthly temperature on the monthly parasitic incidence. Among the high endemic districts, there was a strong linear relationship, p<0.001, F=81.14. However, when the Annual Parasitic Incidence was correlated with Annual Temperature in the high endemic districts, it showed a negative co-relationship, depicting no effect of the annual temperature on the annual parasite incidence rate. Discussion: Factors such as resistance to anti-malarial medicine and pesticide, changing land use patterns and human migration may play a role in malaria endemic and the temperature may not be the only major factor driving the increase in malaria. Conclusion: Factors such as resistance to anti-malarial medicine and pesticide, changing land use patterns and human migration may play a role in malaria endemic and the temperature may not be the only major factor driving the increase in malaria.

PakMediNet -Pakistan's largest Database of Pakistani Medical Journals - http://www.pakmedinet.com