Muhammad Imran, Jamal Abdul Nasir, Sana Riaz.
Regional pattern of HIV cases in Pakistan.
J Postgrad Med Inst Jan ;32(1):9-13.

Objective: To forecast the HIV cases by location and geographical area of residence in Pakistan. Methodology: The record of monthly number of HIV cases from 18 HIV treatment centres for the period of January 2013 to July 2014 taken from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Descriptive frame work along with time series smoothing models (single parameter exponential smoothing, double parameter exponential smoothing, Holt?s and Winter?s multiplicative model) were applied. Results: On the average Punjab (3234 ±556) and Sindh (2606 ±345) had higher monthly HIV cases, while the HIV cases in Islamabad were more consistent due to least coefficient of variation (7%). Among the competing time series models Winter?s (overall, Islamabad, Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan) and Holt?s (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) models were found to be superior in forecasting the HIV cases due to least forecasting error. The increasing trend in HIV cases is expected for all over Pakistan (2.2%), Islamabad (1.3%), Punjab (3.4%), Sindh (1.9%), Balochistan (4%) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1.3%). Conclusion: Increasing trend is expected for HIV cases in Pakistan.

PakMediNet -Pakistan's largest Database of Pakistani Medical Journals - http://www.pakmedinet.com